Possible scenario
Mediated De-escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and possibly Washington press both sides to prevent another round of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. Riyadh may offer limited humanitarian or payment concessions while rejecting core Houthi terms, creating space for a temporary stand-down.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.6%
- Energy -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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