Possible scenario
Tit-For-Tat Continues
30% Chance
The two governments continue trading accusations over student protests, media narratives, and cultural restrictions. The dispute remains politically visible but does not yet lead to expulsions, sanctions, or changes in economic policy.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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