Possible scenario
Quiet Diplomatic Reset
40% Chance
France and Iran keep the dispute contained after the summons, with Paris issuing a formal rebuttal and Tehran avoiding new punitive steps. This is the most likely outcome because the episode appears centered on messaging about French student protests rather than a direct security incident.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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