Possible scenario
Probes Expand
26% Chance
The controversy strengthens pressure on the IDF to show that its August 2026 civilian-casualty criminal probes are substantive. Investigators widen interviews and document collection, but the process remains controlled by Israeli military legal authorities.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- ESLT-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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