Possible scenario
Democratic Turnout Surge
38% Chance
The record early vote in Harris County proves to be an early sign of unusually strong Democratic mobilization in Texas's largest county. This reinforces recent polling showing Democrats leading multiple statewide races and increases the likelihood of a narrow Democratic breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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