Possible scenario
Hormuz Shipping Escalation
30% Chance
Iran or IRGC-linked forces increase pressure on commercial shipping without immediately closing the strait. This is plausible because Iran has already targeted ships and can impose costs through harassment, drones, mines, and insurance risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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