Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
15% Chance
A de-escalation channel gains traction after the U.S. strike, with Gulf states pushing to protect energy exports. This is less likely than continued pressure, but both Washington and Tehran may prefer to avoid an oil shock that damages allies and domestic economies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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