Possible scenario
Contained Military Exchange
45% Chance
The most likely path is a calibrated U.S. response followed by limited Iranian or proxy retaliation that avoids a full Hormuz closure. Washington, Tehran, and Gulf states have strong incentives to signal resolve without triggering a broader energy-market crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.