Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
28% Chance
The blockade and Iranian closure attempt create a high risk of direct U.S.-Iran fighting. A strike on a vessel, drone, base, or coastal battery could force Washington into limited military action and trigger a sharper risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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