Possible scenario
Diplomatic Deconfliction
20% Chance
The heavy disruption to oil trade gives Oman, Qatar, China, and the European Union incentives to push both sides toward a limited maritime pause. This would not resolve the broader confrontation, but it could reduce the immediate risk of vessel attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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