Possible scenario
Controlled Naval Standoff
42% Chance
The most likely path is a tense but managed blockade in which U.S. forces keep redirecting vessels while Iran avoids a direct strike on U.S. ships. Commercial traffic remains heavily disrupted, but both sides preserve room for signaling rather than full-scale war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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