Possible scenario
GOP firewall holds
22% Chance
Republicans absorb losses in smaller or more competitive states but protect their most important governorships and legislative majorities. Abortion-rights voters still matter, yet GOP turnout, candidate discipline, and favorable maps limit the number of broken trifectas.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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