Possible scenario
Omani Mediation Revives
19% Chance
Oman and the UN press for a ceasefire framework after the coalition’s battlefield setback, arguing that the new facts on the ground make further escalation costly. Saudi Arabia faces a choice between accepting an unfavorable freeze or risking a broader confrontation it has tried to avoid since the earlier truce period.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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