Possible scenario
Coalition Counteroffensive Forms
25% Chance
Riyadh, Aden-based PLC figures, and UAE-aligned southern forces attempt to prevent a wider collapse by creating a unified command around Lahij, Aden, and the Bab al-Mandab approaches. Coordination problems remain severe because Islah-linked units, STC forces, and Saudi-backed commanders distrust each other.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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