Possible scenario
Ansarallah Consolidates Taiz
42% Chance
Ansarallah uses the surrender of coalition-linked forces to tighten control around Taiz and force remaining PLC-aligned units into withdrawal or local deals. Saudi Arabia objects diplomatically but avoids immediate large-scale escalation while assessing whether the Taiz collapse can be contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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