Possible scenario
Sanctions Backlash Returns
20% Chance
A political backlash in Washington or a governance dispute with Caracas disrupts confidence in the oil plan. The deal is not necessarily canceled, but traders price a higher chance that barrels arrive later or not at all.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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