Possible scenario
Managed Demand Destruction
23% Chance
If supply additions remain insufficient, European governments lean on industrial curtailment rather than household rationing. This limits storage depletion but hits gas-intensive sectors such as chemicals, metals, glass, and fertilizers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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