Possible scenario
LNG Squeeze Deepens
28% Chance
Qatar's force majeure and Asian winter procurement keep spot LNG scarce, preventing Europe from rebuilding storage quickly. Prices rise and the burden shifts to industrial demand cuts and higher fiscal support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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