Possible scenario
Pragmatic economic turn
18% Chance
Lula uses the clean mandate to reassure investors rather than escalate ideological fights. He keeps a recognizable economic team, opens negotiations with Congress, and signals adherence to the fiscal framework.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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