Possible scenario
Orderly mandate validation
48% Chance
The most likely path is a rapid institutional validation of Lula's runoff win, helped by the unusually low share of spoiled ballots. A clean count makes it harder for Flavio Bolsonaro's camp to sustain claims that the result lacks legitimacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.