Possible scenario
Managed Deterrence Holds
38% Chance
Iran uses the Code 100 alert and weapons announcement as coercive signaling rather than a prelude to immediate strikes. The United States keeps evacuation guidance in place, raises regional force protection, and relies on Oman and Qatar to pass warnings and off-ramps.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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