Possible scenario
Limited Proxy Escalation
27% Chance
Iran avoids a direct state-on-state strike but allows allied militias or cyber units to test US and Israeli defenses. The most likely path is harassment that raises insurance, energy, and defense risk premia without forcing a full US campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.