Possible scenario
Persistent Russian Probing
25% Chance
Moscow may continue using aircraft, drones, and electronic warfare to test NATO reaction times on the northern flank. This would keep regional risk elevated without necessarily producing a kinetic clash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.