Possible scenario
Diplomatic Stabilization
18% Chance
After several close intercepts, NATO and Russia could quietly restore deconfliction channels to reduce accident risk. This would not reverse NATO’s Nordic integration, but it would lower immediate market anxiety.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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