Possible scenario
French Unrest Dominates
18% Chance
The core driver shifts back to domestic unrest in France, with Iran using the arrests rhetorically but not driving the situation. Market effects remain limited unless protests disrupt transport, universities, or retail districts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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