Possible scenario
Selloff Extends
42% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the bear-steepening move as investors demand more term premium for persistent inflation, large Treasury supply, and a more hawkish Fed backdrop. The move remains a market repricing rather than a funding crisis, but rate-sensitive equities and credit weaken further.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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