Possible scenario
Dip Buyers Return
28% Chance
Long-duration investors, pensions, insurers, and foreign reserve managers treat the 5% handle as an attractive entry point. The move does not erase the broader higher-rate regime, but it limits near-term damage to risk assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.2%
- Technology +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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