Possible scenario
Narrow Florida Pause
35% Chance
A Florida court grants a limited emergency order barring OpenAI from releasing new frontier models to Florida users or state agencies while the case proceeds. The order is narrow enough to avoid a nationwide shutdown but validates the state-led pause strategy.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Business Services -0.4%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.6%
- PLTR-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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