Possible scenario
Verification Deal Emerges
20% Chance
The denial becomes part of a face-saving sequence that allows Tehran to reject the reported formulation while accepting a narrower inspection arrangement. A verifiable step by the IAEA would reduce immediate geopolitical risk and slightly pressure oil prices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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