Possible scenario
Sanctions Pressure Rises
30% Chance
European governments and the United States interpret the denial as evidence that Iran is retreating from a possible concession. The E3 moves ahead with sanctions mechanics while Washington tightens enforcement on oil, shipping and financial channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.