Possible scenario
Denial Masks Diplomacy
40% Chance
Iran's state-media denial proves to be tactical messaging rather than a full rejection of access-for-relief diplomacy. Tehran, Washington, the E3 and the IAEA continue indirect discussions, with Iran trying to avoid appearing to bargain publicly under pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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