Possible scenario
Price Downturn Spreads
18% Chance
A less likely but more adverse path is that the volume freeze starts to translate into broader price weakness. If sellers increasingly capitulate, the market shifts from a transaction recession to a visible housing-price correction in selected regions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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