Possible scenario
Freeze Persists
42% Chance
The most likely path is that high mortgage rates keep buyers sidelined and existing owners locked into low-rate mortgages. Transactions remain extremely depressed through late 2026, but limited supply prevents a nationwide price collapse.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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