Possible scenario
Fed Repricing Dominates
28% Chance
Investors may interpret the record-low pending sales reading as evidence that restrictive financial conditions are biting hard. In this path, rates markets increasingly price earlier Fed easing, making the market reaction less negative for housing-linked equities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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