Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and possibly U.S. diplomats push both sides back toward the cease-fire track that existed before the recent attacks. A pause is plausible because both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis may want to avoid a campaign that threatens oil infrastructure and civilian airports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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