Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Threat
25% Chance
The Houthis shift from border airports toward Saudi energy infrastructure or Red Sea logistics to raise the cost of Riyadh's counteroffensive. Even without a large outage, the possibility of attacks on processing plants, ports, or tankers would add a sharper oil-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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