Possible scenario
Contained Border Escalation
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia continues air and artillery strikes against Houthi launch sites while the Houthis keep attacks focused on southern airports and border provinces. This is the most likely path because the current attacks caused injuries but did not yet disrupt national oil exports or trigger direct outside intervention.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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