Possible scenario
Persistent Battlefield Friction
20% Chance
SpaceX keeps meaningful speed limits in place while Ukraine adapts with ground relays, preloaded targeting data, fiber links, and alternative radio networks. This outcome preserves SpaceX’s policy stance but leaves Ukrainian drone defenses less agile against fast-moving Russian drones and glide-bomb support systems.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
Tickers
- SPCX-3.0%
- +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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