Possible scenario
US-Iran Direct Exchange
20% Chance
The MV Sunshine attack triggers a more forceful U.S. response against IRGC missile, drone, or boat facilities. Tehran retaliates, but the degree of escalation depends on whether casualties occur and whether Gulf bases or commercial vessels are hit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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