Possible scenario
Partial Hormuz Disruption
30% Chance
Shipping firms, insurers, and charterers temporarily reduce exposure to southern Hormuz lanes after the MV Sunshine strike. The route is not formally closed, but cargo scheduling, war-risk premiums, and tanker availability tighten sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.