Possible scenario
Dollar Grind Continues
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a continuation of the current move rather than a fresh shock: oil remains elevated, and traders keep adding to Fed rate-hike bets. The dollar stays bid against major currencies as higher energy prices reinforce near-term inflation risks.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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