Possible scenario
Negotiated Maritime Pause
18% Chance
Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland facilitates a narrow maritime arrangement focused on tanker transit rather than the wider U.S.-Iran conflict. Tehran can claim Washington pulled back, while the U.S. can claim it preserved passage without putting major ships inside the Strait.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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