Possible scenario
Iran Tests Vacuum
28% Chance
Tehran interprets the U.S. pullback as room to raise pressure without directly attacking American forces. Harassment, inspections, or another tanker incident keep Hormuz open but unstable, sustaining elevated oil and shipping risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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