Possible scenario
Diplomacy Stalls
30% Chance
The meeting keeps channels open but does not narrow the gap over territory, security guarantees, or sanctions relief. This is a common outcome for U.S.-Russia diplomacy on Ukraine: useful contact, limited substance, and little immediate market repricing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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