Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
The inspector return fails to produce sustained access, and the U.S., Europe, and Israel reassess the credibility of diplomacy. Iran could resume obstruction or accelerate enrichment, lifting the Gulf conflict risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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