Possible scenario
Symbolic Concession Only
30% Chance
Tehran uses the inspector return to avoid immediate diplomatic escalation while withholding access to the most sensitive material and records. The U.S. and European powers keep negotiating, but progress remains slow and reversible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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