Possible scenario
Inspection Thaw Holds
42% Chance
Iran’s decision to permit U.N. nuclear inspectors back becomes the first step in a controlled de-escalation. Tehran offers limited but real access while Washington keeps talks focused on verification, sanctions relief sequencing, and uranium accounting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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