Possible scenario
Permanent US Base
25% Chance
Vilnius uses the constitutional change and its funding offer to press Washington for a permanent U.S. military footprint. The most plausible outcome is an expanded U.S. rotational or semi-permanent presence rather than a full new base immediately.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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