Possible scenario
Nuclear Sharing Option
15% Chance
A smaller but significant possibility is that the constitutional change becomes the legal foundation for NATO nuclear consultation, training, or infrastructure. Actual warhead deployment remains unlikely because it would require alliance consensus and would be seen by Moscow as a sharp escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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