Policy Patience Continues

The most likely path is that the People’s Bank of China keeps the one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.00% and 3.50% while relying on targeted credit guidance, relending tools, and fiscal measures. Beijing appears reluctant to cut further while banks’ net interest margins remain thin and yuan stability remains a policy priority.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.